Daily Market Outlook, January 15, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Oil prices declined for the first time in nearly a week after President Trump suggested he might delay any immediate action against Iran. Precious metals also took a hit, retreating from their recent record highs. Brent crude dropped by as much as 3.3% on Thursday following Trump's remarks that he was reassured by reports indicating Iran's leadership might halt the killing of protesters. However, tensions continued, as Iran temporarily closed its airspace over the capital due to its strained relations with the United States. Silver experienced a sharp decline, falling up to 7.3%, after Trump opted not to introduce new tariffs on key resource imports. Gold, platinum, and palladium also saw declines. Meanwhile, Asia's leading stock index slipped from its peak, and U.S. equity futures edged lower as the S&P 500 Index recorded its first consecutive losses of the year. While commodities pulled back from their highs, the stock market spotlight was on investors stepping away from overvalued tech stocks. With U.S. economic data not significantly altering expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut mid-year, traders are closely watching how this shift in investment plays out, especially as Asian stocks continue to outperform those on Wall Street. In other developments across Asia, the South Korean won weakened after gaining some ground on Wednesday. This came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent made rare comments acknowledging the currency’s steep declines. His remarks momentarily supported the won, which is nearing its lowest level since 2009.

European markets extended their rally Thursday, driven by falling crude oil and precious metal prices. Investors shifted their focus from high-performing U.S. tech and defence stocks to other sectors, boosting momentum. TSMC’s strong results, as the AI chip leader, lifted European semiconductor stocks like ASML, which rose over 4% on Tradegate. Luxury giant Richemont exceeded sales forecasts, fuelled by strong jewellery demand and a recovery in China. EuroSTOXX 50 futures hit record highs, up 0.6%, while UK FTSE 100 futures peaked before easing after stronger-than-expected November GDP data boosted the pound. In the U.S., futures suggested a modest Wall Street rebound after tech and banking stock dips, with Citigroup and Bank of America delivering better-than-expected earnings. Morgan Stanley upgraded Nokia to "overweight," citing its transformation and potential growth in data centres. In Italy, speculation about UniCredit and Delfin discussing a 17.5% stake in Monte dei Paschi gained traction. However, UK homebuilder Taylor Wimpey warned of potential profit margin declines by 2026. Markets remain active, with investors monitoring trends and opportunities globally.

UK GDP grew 0.3% m/m in November, surpassing market expectations, according to the ONS. This suggests Q4 growth may exceed the BoE's zero-growth forecast from the December MPC minutes, potentially rounding up to 0.2% q/q even if December output is flat. However, underlying trends warrant caution. November's growth partly reflects a rebound in car production after JLR's summer cyberattack and concentrated contributions within the services sector, particularly from 'tax consultancy' in the 'professional activities' sector, indicating uneven momentum across the economy.

China's 2025 trade performance shows a record surplus of $1.19 trillion, but significant shifts occurred beneath the surface. Exports to the US dropped nearly 20% ($420 billion) due to tariffs, but trade was redirected to Asian economies (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia) and Europe, benefiting from cheaper Chinese goods driven by overcapacity and renminbi depreciation. For instance, Chinese exports to the UK rose 8% despite weak UK demand, while UK exports to China fell 18.6%. Beyond geography, China’s export mix evolved, with tech and EV sales surging—vehicle exports hit $142 billion, up from $15 billion pre-Covid—while lower-end consumer goods declined. This value chain shift challenges advanced economies' manufacturing bases.

Overnight Headlines

• China Drafting Nvidia H200 Chip Purchase Rules

• US Sets 25% Tariff On Some Chip Sales As Part Of Nvidia Deal

• Trump’s ‘Unpredictable’ Policies To Fuel Shift From US, Pimco

• OpenAI Forges $10B Deal With Cerebras For AI Computing

• Crude Falls After Trump’s Latest Comments On Iran Protests

• Trump Tells Reuters No Plans To Remove Powell Despite Probe

• BoE Accused Of Making ‘Mistake’ In Loosening Capital Rules

• German Vice Chancellor: EU-US Relationship ‘Disintegrating’

• US: Gaza Entering Next Phase Of Ceasefire, Disarming Hamas

• Bitcoin ETFs See Biggest Inflow Since October’s Crash

• Toyota Shares Hit Record High As Market Eyes Revised Offer

• Japan Opposition Eyes Merger Ahead Of Possible Snap Election

• BoK Holds As Board Flags Weak Won, Property Risks

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• EUR/USD: 1.1580 (560M), 1.1600 (324M), 1.1650 (438M), 1.1680 (430M), 1.1700 (693M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400 (338M), 1.3450 (1.25BLN)

• AUD/USD: 0.6730 (317M). NZD/USD: 0.5700-05 (335M), 0.5770 (200M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3850 (1.4BLN), 1.3920-25 (390M), 1.3945 (395M)

• USD/JPY: 158.30 (300M), 159.00 (950M)

CFTC Positions as of January 9th:  

• Speculators have reduced their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 90,044 contracts, bringing it down to 2,312,753.

• The net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures has been decreased by 24,106 contracts, resulting in a total of 915,552.

• Speculators have cut their net short position in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures by 52,953 contracts, now totaling 1,346,654.

• There has been a reduction of 9,392 contracts in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures, resulting in a net short position of 245,747.

• Speculators switched their position in CBOT US Treasury bonds to a net short of 6,832 contracts, compared to 14,222 net long contracts the previous week.

• The net short position in Bitcoin stands at 734 contracts.

• The Swiss franc reflects a net short position of 40,266 contracts.

• The British pound has a net short position of 30,538 contracts.

• The Euro has a net long position of 162,812 contracts.

• The Japanese yen holds a net long position of 8,815 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 6890 Target 7040

• Below 6860 Target 6820

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.1710 Target 1.1780

• Below 1.1685 Target 1.1580

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3490 Target 1.36

• Below 1.3390 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 157.40 Target 160

• Below 157 Target 155

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4500 Target 4687

• Below 4460 Target 4380

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 91.8k Target 98.17k

• Below 91.2k Target 88.7k