Daily Market Outlook, August 27, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Missive – Nvidia Spikes Tech As Rate Fears Weigh On Bonds

US equity futures rallied on Thursday as Nvidia’s blockbuster sales forecast re-energised investor confidence in the artificial intelligence trade, overshadowing persistent rate-hike concerns in fixed income. Nasdaq 100 contracts jumped 0.9% alongside a 4.7% surge in Nvidia shares during extended trading after the chipmaker projected ~70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028—handily beating Wall Street’s 45% estimate. The buoyant outlook spilt into broader tech names like Marvell and Sandisk, lifting European equity futures and triggering a 1.3% gain in South Korea’s Kospi.


However, bond markets faced renewed selling pressure as sticky inflation prints prompted traders to price in further monetary tightening. Two-year US Treasury yields rose to 4.22%, with money markets now fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike by December. Global yields followed suit: sovereign bonds across Australia, New Zealand, and Japan retreated as central bank expectations shifted hawkishly, while the South Korean won strengthened following a second consecutive rate increase by the Bank of Korea.


In commodities and FX, Gold climbed 0.6% toward $4,620/oz as a hedge against stubborn inflation, while Brent crude stabilized near $87.40/bbl. The energy backdrop remains a double-edged sword: while crude has retreated from recent peaks, underlying inflation metrics continue to keep central banks on high alert, capping broader duration gains in fixed income.


Economic data out of the US presented a complex narrative for risk assets. Second-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.5% q/q annualized, but nominal output and PCE headline inflation were both revised higher, reflecting a clearer pass-through of energy costs. Real personal spending rose 3.4% annualized, driven almost entirely by healthcare expenditure—which accounted for nearly 40% of total PCE growth—while goods spending was deflated by higher prices. At the same time, US corporate pre-tax profits surged to an all-time record of 14.9% of GDP, underscoring a stark divide between booming corporate margins and financially strained households.


July’s monthly PCE report delivered a mild hawkish tilt, with headline PCE up 0.2% m/m (3.7% y/y) and core PCE rising 0.246% m/m (3.3% y/y). While these prints remain above the Fed's target, they do not force an immediate policy shift. On the consumer side, income growth picked up 0.4% m/m, offering a modest buffer for a depleted personal savings rate. However, spending increases remained concentrated in non-discretionary sectors—healthcare, utilities, and financial asset-management fees—reinforcing the view that real consumer demand is far more fragile than headline growth figures imply.


Macro to Micro: Nvidia’s bullish multi-year guidance has successfully restored a floor under equity risk sentiment, but the broader macro environment remains tightly constrained by duration dynamics. Strong corporate profit margins are insulating equity valuations for now, but persistent service-sector inflation and rising short-end yields mean the Fed has little scope to ease. For traders, the near-term focus centers on whether tech earnings momentum can continue to decouple from elevated borrowing costs.

Overnight Headlines

  • BoJ Deputy Governor Himino Calls For ‘Timely’ Rate Hike

  • Bank Of Korea Delivers Back-To-Back Rate Increase To 3.00%

  • Economists See RBA Rate Hike As Early As September After Hot CPI

  • Australia Household Spending Surges Past Estimates In July

  • China Industrial Profit Growth Slows To 11.2%, Weakest Pace This Year

  • US Allies Warn Hormuz Is Still Mined Despite Trump Claim

  • Qatar PM To Visit Tehran To Pursue Iran Mediation Efforts

  • CIA Chief’s Moscow Trip Was To Warn Kremlin Not To Attack NATO

  • EU States Revive Plan To Use Frozen Russian Assets For Ukraine

  • US Says Chinese Hackers Breached DoJ, NASA, Fed And Senate

  • France Replaces Italy As European Bond Investors’ Biggest Concern

  • Dollar Near Eight-Day High As US Data Lifts Fed Hike Bets

  • Nvidia Forecasts 70% Sales Growth, More Years Of AI Spending Boom

  • Nvidia Agrees To Buy Hugging Face For $12.9B

  • Amazon To Buy 2M Nvidia Chips For Data Centre Build-Out

  • HP Falls On Investor Concerns About PC Demand Trends

  • Salesforce Revenue Rise, Expands Partnership With Anthropic

  • CrowdStrike Beats Annual Revenue Forecasts As AI Threats Rise

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • Thursday 27/08

  • EUR/USD: 1.1530 (€1.9bn), 1.1535 (€552m), 1.1550 (€1.4bn), 1.1600 (€2.3bn), 1.1630 (€527m), 1.1645 (€1.1bn), 1.1650 (€764m), 1.1695 (€1.4bn), 1.1700 (€1.0bn)

  • USD/JPY: 158.00 ($730m), 158.18 ($799m), 158.90 ($619m), 160.00 ($524m)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3550 (£841m)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7100 (A$1.3bn)

  • Friday 28/08

  • EUR/USD: 1.1575 (€528m), 1.1600 (€812m), 1.1625 (€765m), 1.1650 (€767m), 1.1680 (€759m), 1.1725 (€840m)

  • USD/JPY: 158.20 ($1.1bn), 161.00 ($665m)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3700 (£832m)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8000 ($1.5bn)

CFTC Positions as of 21/7/26

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 5,978 contracts to 267,509

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 10,361 contracts to 952,422

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 33,349 contracts to 1,274,105

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 31,908 contracts to 946,961

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 93,706 contracts to 927,337

  • Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 19,941 contracts to 346,724

  • Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 39,405 contracts to 219,012

  • Bitcoin net long position is 2,736 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -27,278 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -54,573 contracts

  • Euro net short position is -59,088 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -52,893 contracts


Technical & Trade Views


SP500 - 7620 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 7620 Target 7870

  • Below 7580 Target 7490

DXY - 99 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 99.20 Target 99.75

  • Below 99 Target 97.50

EURUSD - 1.16 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.16 Target 1.18

  • Below 1.1550 Target 1.1475

GBPUSD - 1.3550 weekly  bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.3550 Target 1.3690

  • Below 1.35 Target 1.3450

USDJPY - 160 weekly bull bear level 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish>Bullish

  • Above 155 Target 160

  • Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD - 4500 weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 4500 Target 4725

  • Below 4450 Target 4385

BTCUSD - 74k weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 74k Target 83k

  • Below 73.8k Target 70.8k