S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 26/8/26
S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 26/8/26
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.10 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.
GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor
JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950
DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7620/00
WEEKLY RANGE RES 7795/7806 SUP 7595/72
MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 7677
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7634
MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7503
DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7686
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7838.5/7542.75
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7735/45
GAP FILL 7766.25
GAMMA FLIP 7681
DELTA FLIP 7645
TECHNICAL EQUALITY OBJECTIVE 7626
DAILY RANGE RES 7758 SUP 7622
2 SIGMA RES 7826 SUP 7554
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9 (VVIX / VIX) 5.41
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM OF WBBZ TARGET RTH CLOSE 7690
***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
JPMORGAN EQUITY & MACRO AFTERNOON BRIEFING Market Tone: Tech Rebound & Oil Flush | SPX +0.3% | NDX +0.6% | RTY +0.5% | 10Y 4.625% | VIX 15.43
THE TAKE: TECH LEADS REBOUND AS OIL PLUNGES ON DIPLOMATIC CHATTER
Equities closed higher in a classic Tech-led rebound, reversing recent momentum drag as AI-linked chips and infrastructure names caught a firm bid ahead of high-stakes earnings from NVDA and MRVL. Lower yields—driven by a steep drop in oil prices—provided broad tailwinds across European and US markets, with Treasury yields falling 6 to 8 bps across the curve.
The dominant macro catalyst was a -5% drop in WTI oil (slumping to $81.10), driven by headlines suggesting progress in US-Iran backchannel talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, the retail footprint took a heavy hit: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) crashed 31% after missing earnings and slashing guidance, triggering broad supply across the athletic footwear/sportswear complex. Economic data tilted negative, marked by a miss in New Home Sales and a drop in Consumer Confidence to a seven-month low (89.4), though the labor market differential saw a slight bounce.
MACRO & COMMODITIES
Crude Oil Breakdown: WTI (-460bps to $81.10) shed ~$2 in the final 15 minutes of trading on speculation of an "interim framework" between the US and Iran (via Oman/Pakistan mediators) to restore shipping traffic. While Iran noted Hormuz will remain restricted until terms are fully met, markets aggressively priced in near-term de-escalation.
Gold ($4,667, +33bps): Holding gains near session highs. Commodities trading desk notes gold remains bound in the $4,500–$5,000 range. Rates remain hypersensitive to tomorrow's PCE inflation print and Jackson Hole messaging—a hawkish surprise retests the 200DMA, while a soft print keeps momentum toward $5,000 intact.
US-Canada Trade Friction: Tensions spiked after Canada announced it will double counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum to 50%, backed by a C$7.5B domestic business support package.
TRADING DESK & SECTOR COLOR
1. Consumer / Footwear & Sportswear (Briggs Barton & Alex):
The Take: DKS’s earnings collapse prompted heavy short-pressing across DKS, NKE, and LULU, alongside long liquidations in AS.
Buy-side Sentiment: Zero appetite to defend the group. Institutional desk flow reflects deep concern over a protracted destocking and innovation-lacking footwear cycle, compounding a weakening consumer backdrop. Minor short-covering was visible only in ONON and BIRK.
2. Healthcare & Biotech (Jackie Bukzin):
The Take: Therapeutics/Biotech rallied, but buy-side participation was "eerily quiet." Dedicated healthcare investors used the strength as an opportunity to reduce risk and sell into the move rather than chase it. Flows skew net-sell.
BUYSIDE BARS: KEY EARNINGS ON DECK
1. Nvidia (NVDA) | Reports Tomorrow AMC | Implied Move: 4.6%
Positioning Score:
3(Leaning Long)Buyside Bar: Q3 Revenue $94B–$95B; Q4 Guide $107B–$108B (whisper numbers reaching $110B+, though wafer supply remains the hard constraint).
Setup: Stock trades ~6% off its Aug 14 peak. Sentiment is warming on GB300 rack ramps, Rubin Ultra visibility, and potential pricing power. Derivatives desk flags upside opportunities in implied vol (<5%).
2. Marvell Technology (MRVL) | Reports Aug 27 AMC | Implied Move: 8.8%
Positioning Score:
1(Light)Buyside Bar: Q3 QoQ Revenue +15%; Guide +12% QoQ (~50% YoY).
Setup: The market has yet to fully credit the transformational Google partnership expansion ($20B p.a. implied vs. $12B consensus). Upside surprise in datacenter/ASIC programs could yield a sharp re-rate against light positioning.
PORTFOLIO ACTION & TACTICAL SETUP
Macro Bias: Tactically Bullish (Lower Conviction). The tape must digest tomorrow’s PCE print (Headline expected at 3.65% YoY; Core at 3.28% YoY) and Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Hot inflation + aggressive Fed tone risks triggering a 3%–4% SPX pullback via higher bond yields.
The Playbook: Maintain the Tech/Cyclicals Barbell. Rotate AI concentration into Mag7 + Software, and spread cyclical exposure toward Financials, Energy, and Metals/Miners to benefit from market broadening and persistent dollar debasement dynamics. Healthcare serves as a primary defensive hedge against Midterm election seasonality.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!